Bitcoin technical analysis
In our previous Bitcoin update we discussed the new price range that has been formed after reaching a new all-time high. We see that this price range is still intact after months of consolidation. Although the Bitcoin price has not made much progress in this phase, we do see that Altcoins have been given room for further upward price development during this period. This is a pattern that we often see during periods when the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating for quite some time.
In the chart below we can clearly see that Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase between the range low around $62,000 and the range high near $72,000. This horizontal price range is crucial because it shows the two main levels where the price has consistently found resistance and support over the past few months.
- Resistance at $72,000 (range high): This level has been acting as strong resistance since reaching the all-time high. Every attempt by the bulls to break this barrier has failed so far, suggesting there is strong selling pressure around this point.
- Support at $62,000 (range low): This level provides solid support and has served as a bounce area several times when the price has come under pressure. This indicates that buyers in this region are willing to step in and push the price up.
What can we expect?
Bitcoin is still moving within the specified range, and momentum remains weak as long as there is no clear breakout or breakdown. If the price manages to break through the range high, this could lead to a new impulse move towards new highs. On the other hand, if the support at USD 62,000 breaks, we can expect a further correction towards lower levels such as USD 58,000 or even lower.
For traders, it is important to look for breakout or rejection signals around these key levels, combining with volume analysis and other indicators such as the RSI to identify oversold or overbought conditions.
In short, the current consolidation in Bitcoin provides a stable base, but the lack of momentum suggests we need to be patient for the next bigger move.
US Presidential Elections and Bitcoin
The American presidential elections are playing an increasingly important role in the direction of the Bitcoin price. Analysts and experts are divided on the precise impact, but in general a political event of this scale can cause a lot of volatility in the market. The outcome of the elections could significantly influence Bitcoin’s price, depending on who comes to power and how that leader acts towards cryptocurrencies.
Trump vs. Harris: Different Expectations
Donald Trump is considered by many within the crypto community to be more pro-Bitcoin, in part due to his general anti-establishment stance. If Trump wins, there are predictions that Bitcoin’s price could rise as high as $92,000 or even $125,000, according to estimates from several market researchers and banks such as Standard Chartered.
On the other side is Kamala Harris, who is considered less crypto-friendly. Analysts expect her presidency to have a less immediate positive impact on the crypto market. Still, there is no certainty that the price will react negatively to its possible victory, as Bitcoin’s growth is determined by much broader factors than just politics.
Conclusion
The upcoming US elections are of great importance for the Bitcoin market. Depending on who wins, we can expect varying degrees of optimism or uncertainty in the market. Historically, such geopolitical events have often led to increased volatility in Bitcoin, presenting opportunities for traders.
Forecast for Altcoins
As long as the price of Bitcoin continues to consolidate in the previously discussed price range, our bias around altcoins is positive. In that case, a further price movement upward is likely. However, it is wise to continue to closely monitor the price development of Bitcoin around the American presidential elections. A breakout of the price from the range will undoubtedly be at the expense of the strength of altcoins. So stay alert on this.